Future Potential
For this market, additional CHP capacity is expected to be 16,230 MW for the nation, and more than 5900 MW for our region. CHP for process cooling and mechanical drive applications also have significant untapped potential.

Nationally, the technical potential for CHP in the Petrochemical and refining market is very strong. Technical potential simply means the future potential capacity that is technically feasible. In the coming years, new CHP capacity is expected to be >16,230 MW power and 786 Tbtu steam.1,2 Individually, the technical potential for the chemicals sector is estimated at 9,440 MW power and 495 Tbtu steam, while the petroleum sector estimated at 6,789 MW and 291 Tbtu.1,2


But CHP can be used for more than just power generation. CHP systems may be integrated with process mechanical drives, process cooling equipment, space heating and cooling equipment, liquid pumping equipment and air compressors.1,2 As illustrated in the chart below, the chemicals and refining sub sectors have approximately 35 GW of CHP machine drive and 4 GW CHP process cooling and refrigeration potential.1


Regionally, the CHP technical potential is also strong. Petrochemical and refining potential in our area is anticipated to be 5,940 MW. Specifically, we can expect to see an additional 2,640 MW coming from the Chemicals sector and 3,300 MW from the Refining sector.3


In summary, future CHP technical potential for this market is huge.

Economic potential is the technical potential subjected to an economic screening process. Important among the screening criteria are the capital cost of the CHP system (design, equipment and installation), operating and maintenance costs, and the fuel price for the CHP system relative to competing sources of power and heat, otherwise known as the "spark spread".

The spark spread can be critical. The price for the CHP system fuel has an important impact on whether a project is economic or not. Duel fuel systems or opportunity fuels, such as process gas or produced gas; offer some stability in times of volatile fuel pricing. In duel fuel systems, if the price of one fuel becomes uneconomic, the CHP system can be switched to a different fuel and continue to be profitable.

Every project is unique, so careful screening of projects is imperative. For more on this topic, see Benefits and Challenges.

The following economic potentials refer to national capacity, not regional capacity. At this time, no estimates of economic potential by market are available for our region.

National CHP potential - In 2003, a series of economic screening models were run by Resource Dynamics that examined future CHP potential in various market sectors. Their study suggests that the greatest future promise for CHP in all industrial sectors is in the Chemicals submarket.4 This study estimates 7800 MW additional economic potential for Chemicals and 1200 MW for Petroleum Refining.4 Keep in mind that economic assumptions were made in this study, and they have an impact on the final results. (See their report ( 992 KB) for model input parameters.)

National CHP cooling potential - In this same study, Resource Dynamics (2003) calculated approximately 180,000 tons of future cooling capacity for Chemicals, and approximately 140,000 tons in Petroleum refining for the nation.

In the petrochemicals market, process cooling is used in a variety of applications; for example, in reaction heat removal, separations, condensations, solidifications and humidity control.4 Cooling is typically achieved using indirect-fired absorption chillers or engine-driven chillers.4 (See Use Low Grade Waste Steam to Power Absorption Chillers ( 267 KB) for additional information.5)


Technical and economic potential for CHP in the Petrochemicals and refining market is expected to remain very strong into the future.

In Chemicals, growth is anticipated across the spectrum of system sizes from <1 MW systems to > 50 MW systems (see table below). However in petroleum refining, growth is likely to be in large capacity installations.2


*Note: Values listed here represent technical potential.

Considering CHP for your Petrochemical or Refining project? Contact Us directly for additional information.