Future Potential
For this market, additional CHP capacity is expected to be 26,200 MW for the nation and more than 440 MW for our region. Paper Manufacturing ranks first in technical CHP potential and third in economic CHP potential when industrial market sectors are compared.

Paper Manufacturing has the largest CHP technical potential of all industrial market sectors. Technical potential is simply the total capacity that is technically feasible. CHP technical potential is estimated to be 26,200 MW in power and 769 Tbtu in steam.1,2


Of this, paper and paperboard represent the vast majority of the CHP potential, while pulp and corrugated represent only a small fraction.1

But CHP can be used for more than just power generation. CHP systems may be integrated with process mechanical drives, process cooling equipment, space heating and cooling equipment, liquid pumping equipment and air compressors.1,2 According to Onsite Energy (2001), "The Paper Manufacturing market is second only to the chemicals market in the potential for additional process power."

More than 20 GW of CHP potential is estimated for machine-driven machinery and a small portion is estimated for process cooling/refrigeration (see below).1


In our region, future CHP capacity in the paper market is expected to grow by 440 MW.3 This figure represents approximately 4% of the total industrial potential for our region.3 This percentage appears relatively small, but in terms of capacity, the figure is still substantial.


Economic potential is the technical potential subjected to an economic screening process. Important among the screening criteria are the capital cost of the CHP system (design, equipment and installation), operating and maintenance costs, and the fuel price for the CHP system relative to competing sources of power and heat, otherwise known as the "spark spread".

The spark spread can be critical. The cost of the CHP system fuel has an important impact on whether a project is economic or not. Duel fuel systems or opportunity fuels, such as forest waste; offer some stability in times of volatile fuel pricing. In duel fuel systems, if the price of one fuel becomes uneconomic, the CHP system can be switched to a different fuel and continue to be profitable. Every project is unique, so careful screening of projects is imperative. For more on this topic, see Benefits and Challenges.

The following economic potentials refer to national capacity, not regional capacity. At this time, no estimates of economic potential by market are available for our region.

National CHP potential - In 2003, a series of economic screening models were run by Resource Dynamics that examined future CHP potential in various market sectors. This study estimated approximately 3000 MW additional economic potential for the paper manufacturing market.4 Based on this study, the paper market has the third highest potential behind the chemicals and primary metals industries.4 Keep in mind that assumptions were made in this study that have an impact on the final results. (See their report ( 992 KB) for model input parameters.)

National CHP cooling potential - In this same study, Resource Dynamics (2003) calculated that there was no economic potential in cooling capacity for this market.4 Both from a technical perspective and from an economic perspective, CHP potential for cooling applications is low.

In summary, CHP potential for power generation and mechanical drive applications is expected to be strong, while CHP potential for cooling applications is expected to be weak.

In paper manufacturing, growth is anticipated primarily in large capacity systems.2 The >50 MW range represent 91% of the total growth.


*Note: Values listed here represent technical potential.

Biomass gasification offers outstanding energy and environmental improvements for the future. According to congressional testimony provided by the president of the American Forest and Paper Association, "Biomass gasification could make the U.S. forest products industry totally energy self-reliant and generate a surplus of 22 gigawatts of power to the grid".6 Feedstock for biomass gasification includes wood logs, chips, bark, and pulp manufacturing liquor, as well as agricultural waste and energy crops.

One type of biomass gasification is black liquor gasification. Black liquor is generated during the kraft chemical pulping process and is traditionally burned in a boiler to recover chemicals and to generate electricity.7 However, the synthetic gas liberated during black liquor gasification may be used in a combined cycle system to generate two to three times the power of traditional systems.8

This technical advance would allow mills to eliminate not only recovery boilers from their process, but other boilers used to generate steam and electricity.5 Fewer boilers would result in fewer boiler accidents. But there are other benefits as well. Gasification has the potential to dramatically decrease toxic air emissions.7

To learn more about commercial scale black liquor gasification demonstration projects, go to Big Island Steam Reformer Project and The New Bern Plant, New Bern link. A third gasification plant, one using forest and agricultural feedstock rather than black liquor, is being considered for Potlatch's Cypress Bend pulp and paper mill in Arkansas. (See Forest and Agro-waste Biorefinery).

The focus of these projects is gasification not CHP. However, once full scale gasification plants are established, their synfuels could power CHP systems.